2023-24 Big Ten Basketball Preseason Team Rankings
- sedlecky0
- Nov 13, 2023
- 18 min read
One year ago, I took a big step – or at least what felt like one at the time – in starting a college basketball-focused blog of my own. It takes not a genius to realize that I was a bit (read: two-plus decades) late to this whole blog game in the first place, but after years of lunatic fandom, countless debates with friends, family, and strangers alike, and enough time watching college basketball that I’d probably pass Malcolm Gladwell’s presupposed 10,000 hours-to-expertise hypothesis, starting late was at least…well, a start.
I readily and reverently acknowledge the many writers and personalities who have come before me in this space and others in the general blogosphere and read (and listen to) as much of their work as possible, from MGoBlog and UMHoops to the Three Man Weave, Brendan Quinn’s stuff at The Athletic, The Moving Screen, Tate Frazier at One Shining Podcast, Mark Titus (regrettably) at Barstool (RIP Titus and Tate and Grantland), KenPom, and so many more.
This here blog is not intended to “compete” with those listed above; it is a fledgling (generously) operation built out of my own desire to sift through my college basketball-crazed mind. It exists because I recognize in myself a more articulate voice on paper than I can often succinctly elaborate on in conversation, and of course it offers a medium in which I have, hypothetically, the ability to reach anyone on earth with an internet connection.
But ultimately this blog, this virtual place, is simply for me. It is a place where I can make wild suppositions and preposterous predictions largely without recourse. It is a place where I can write as much or as little, as frequently or as rarely as I choose (or, more aptly, as often as I give myself the time, space, and focus to write). It is a place where I can boast to myself that I sometimes feel like I know what I am talking about (Purdue winning the Big Ten last year? Book it!) or, more often, laugh when I’m not even close (Jamison Battle and Patrick McCaffery on the All-Big Ten 1st Team last year? Sure…). And while I always intend to write more, to post pieces at precise times, and to explore the many ideas I have upstairs, the reality is I am just one person hoping to have a little fun on this Bounce Bounce Pass journey. In time, perhaps this will grow into something more, but for now, I am proud of myself for showing up for another season and eternally grateful for and to anyone who chooses to spend their precious time reading a paragraph, a post, or anything else I share. Thank you.
All of that is to state the obvious here: I am late to post this. For the first time I can remember in my 33 years on this planet, the college basketball season snuck up on me a bit. In part, I would like to think that is thanks to my enjoying a summer that seemed to last longer than any in recent memory, and in part it is simply because I have been busy living. I will not wax poetic in this post, but I hope we are all striving to live as fully as we can while our time remains on this side of the earth.
While I intended for this post to precede the season in its entirety, I now have the unanticipated benefit of some real-life non-conference action of consequence to lean on, but I will do my best to limit any hindsight talk and maintain my gut feelings as they were a week ago. And though I am a bit late to the party, I am no less excited than always for the road that leads to March.
With that, let us look at the Big Ten season ahead before the conference warps and expands significantly beginning next year. In previewing and taking on the fool’s errand of ranking all 14 teams from first to last, we shall also quickly refresh how things shook out last year, courtesy of KenPom’s handy dandy chart:
And now for the rankings! For each team, I will present a quick rundown of returning players listed in approximate order of projected on-court impact followed by additions via transfer and incoming freshmen, again listed in the same order as returners and with their 247 Sports ranking. I will also highlight players who departed from each team, via normal matriculation, draft, and transfer. Players who are projected to receive minimal or no playing time may not be listed only because of a lack of knowledge and time, but I still care about them and their families in my heart. I will then give a quick overview of my thoughts on the team, ending with an entirely dubious projected record and season finish. Lastly, I would be entirely remiss to not give a big shout out to Joe Jackson of Feed the Post and Boilers In The Stands podcasts; he has put out an incredible amount of informative video content on his YouTube channel that has helped me immensely in putting this preview together. Give him a follow on Twitter (or X, if you prefer): @joejacksonCBB
1. Purdue
2022-23 Season End: First Round NCAA Tournament loss to Fairleigh Dickinson
Returning: Zach Edey (Sr.), Braden Smith (So.), Fletcher Loyer (So.), Mason Gillis (Sr.), Ethan Morton (Sr.), Trey Kaufman-Renn (So.), Caleb Furst (Jr.), Camden Heide (RS Fr.), Brian Waddell (So.), Will Berg (RS Fr.)
In-Transfer: Lance Jones (Southern Illinois, 5th year)
Incoming Freshmen: SF/W Myles Colvin (4-star, #63 overall)
Departures: David Jenkins, Brandon Newman (Western Kentucky)
Overview: We all witnessed the Boilermakers’ promising season come to a shocking halt at the hands of the small, scrappy, and seemingly outmatched Knights of Fairleigh Dickinson (ranked #299 on KenPom heading into the game) in the first round of the NCAA Tournament, just the second ever victory for a 16-seed over a 1-seed following Virginia’s historic loss to UMBC in 2018. We also know how Virginia avenged that loss in winning the 2019 National Championship. I don’t know if Purdue will repeat that fairy tale story, but I am confident that the sophomore backcourt duo of Braden Smith and Fletcher Loyer will take a big step forward, and I don’t think Zach Edey has lost any of his monstrous size. Myles Colvin continues to get hype around West Lafayette as a guy who can contribute on defense and provide some offensive sparks with his athleticism, and Lance Jones should be an upgrade over David Jenkins in helping take on a bit of the scoring load and ball-handling responsibilities in spots. The big question, of course, is outside shooting, as Purdue made a dreadful 32.2% from deep last year (276th in the country) and only two returners (Smith and Gillis) shot better than 35% individually, with neither eclipsing even 38%. Those two will need to garner significant respect along with one other teammate – likely Loyer and/or Jones – to keep defenses honest and give Edey room inside to dominate as usual.
Prediction: 30-6 (16-4 B1G), 1-seed, Final Four
2. Michigan State
2022-23 Season End: Sweet Sixteen OT loss to Kansas State
Returning: Tyson Walker (5th year), AJ Hoggard (Sr.), Jaden Akins (Jr.), Mady Sissoko (Sr.), Malik Hall (5th year), Carson Cooper (So.), Tre Holloman (So.), Jaxon Kohler (So.)
In-Transfer: None
Incoming Freshmen: W/F Coen Carr (4-star, #46 overall), F/C Xavier Booker (5-star, #11 overall), PG Jeremy Fears (4-star, #32 overall), W/F Gehrig Normand (4-star, #124 overall)
Departures: Joey Hauser, Pierre Brooks (Butler)
Overview: Like Purdue, Michigan State returns a lineup that is largely intact from a strong 2022-23 campaign, though the loss of Joey Hauser’s three-point shooting has been apparent early on for Tom Izzo’s Spartans so far, as MSU has made just 2/30 attempts from deep so far. Unlike Purdue, Michigan State was something less than elite last year, though they were the conference’s last team standing in March before bowing out to a red-hot Kansas State team in a thrilling OT March battle. The other key difference, as evidenced above, is an incredible influx of prospects to East Lansing. Coen Carr is the talk of the town so far after he threw down an unbelievable double-clutch two-handed dunk from the free throw line at Midnight Madness. Carr figures to have the most translatable skill set early on and should give the Spartans some rebounding and finishing pizzazz while Xavier Booker’s potential is off the charts. Both will have learning curves as they adjust to the college game along with their classmates, but I believe Izzo will have to break his tendency to hold back freshmen in order for this team to reach its lofty ceiling. If Carr and Booker are starting by the turn of the New Year – headaches and all, they absolutely should be – the Spartans could still be playing in April.
Prediction: 24-11 (14-6 B1G), 3-seed, Sweet Sixteen
3. Maryland
2022-23 Season End: Second Round NCAA Tournament loss to Alabama
Returning: Jahmir Young (5th year), Julian Reese (Jr.), Donta Scott (5th year), Jahari Long (Sr.), Noah Batchelor (So.), Caelum Swanton-Rodger (So.)
In-Transfer: Jordan Geronimo (Indiana, Sr.), Mady Traore (New Mexico State, So.), Chance Stephens (Loyola Marymount, So.)
Incoming Freshmen: G DeShawn Harris-Smith (4-star, #27 overall), G/W Jamie Kaiser (4-star, #75 overall), G Jahnathan Lamothe (3-star, #173 overall), C Braden Pierce (3-star, unranked)
Departures: Hakim Hart (Villanova), Don Carey, Ian Martinez (Utah State), Patrick Emilien
Overview: This high of a ranking may come as a bit of a surprise (particularly after the shockingly slow start…I’m trying to keep true to my preseason rankings here), but two things stand out for me with Maryland that I don’t see or feel in the rest of the blobby pack after a fairly clear top two of Purdue and Michigan State. First, I think Jahmir Young and Julian Reese form the best inside-out battery in the entire conference. Yes, I realize that Edey is (quite literally) head and shoulders above everyone else, but the scoring punch Maryland packs with this duo is formidable. I expect Young to improve on his outside shooting (31.1% last year) in his second season in the league and think Reese will have a bit of a coming out party as one of the best bigs in the league. Second, I simply believe in Kevin Willard as a coach. This team should have plenty of offense with Young, Reese, and college-ready freshmen Harris-Smith and Kaiser, and you can damn well be sure that Willard is going to have the squad playing physical, tough, grind-it-out defense. Sprinkle in the steadiness of old-man Donta Scott and the Terrapins are the best bet to threaten for a top-two conference finish if the Terrapins can nudge their offensive (36th) and defensive (32nd) efficiency numbers up slightly.
Prediction: 23-11 (13-7 B1G), 4-seed, Sweet Sixteen
4. Illinois
2022-23 Season End: First Round NCAA Tournament loss to Arkansas
Returning: Terrence Shannon Jr. (5th year), Coleman Hawkins (Sr.), Dain Dainja (Jr.), Ty Rodgers (So.), Luke Goode (Jr.), Sencire Harris (So., redshirting)
In-Transfer: Quincy Guerrier (Oregon/Syracuse, 5th year), Marcus Domask (Southern Illinois, 5th year), Justin Harmon (Utah Valley, Jr.)
Incoming Freshmen: G Dra Gibbs-Lawhorn (3-star, #143 overall), G Niccolo Moretti (NR), F Amani Hansberry (4-star, #61 overall), F Zacharie Perrin (3-star, unranked)
Departures: Matthew Mayer, Jayden Epps (Georgetown), Skyy Clark (Louisville), RJ Melendez (Georgia)
Overview: Whew. I think Brad Underwood is a fan of jigsaw puzzles. In classic fashion, Illinois’s roster experienced an impressive amount of turnover from last year’s topsy-turvy season that sputtered to an unimpressive close with three straight losses, including first-game exits in the Big Ten and NCAA Tournaments. The good news for the Fighting Illini is that TJ Shannon is back after flirting with the NBA, which will certainly keep the entertainment going. Stretch-four Coleman Hawkins and man-sized Dain Dainja give this squad a nice baseline level of production while many peg Ty Rodgers to break out in a combo-guard role. The less-good news is that no one really knows if there is a solid primary ballhandler on this roster. Gibbs-Lawhorn is at least getting a trial run it would seem while fellow freshman Niccolo Moretti (you’d never guess it, but he’s from Italy…while coming to this team by way of the NBA’s Global Academy in Australia) figures to be in the mix as well. Ultimately, however, I’d expect Shannon to once again have his paws on the rock quite often, while Rodgers will demand some outside touches as well. It could all lead to some spectacular Underwood blow-ups, but there’s enough talent that the maybe-four, maybe-zero point guard lineup will be plenty of fun to watch. Let’s see how the puzzle comes together!
Prediction: 22-12 (12-8 B1G), 5-seed, Elite Eight
5. Wisconsin
2022-23 Season End: Semifinal NIT loss to North Texas
Returning: Tyler Wahl (5th year), Chucky Hepburn (Jr.), Steven Crowl (Jr.), Connor Essegian (So.), Max Klesmit (Jr.), Carter Gilmore (Jr.), Kamari McGee (Jr.), Markus Ilver (Jr.), Isaac Lindsey (Jr.)
In-Transfer: AJ Storr (St. John’s, So.)
Incoming Freshmen: F Nolan Winter (3-star, #153 overall), G John Blackwell (3-star, #209 overall), F Gus Yalden (4-star, #122 overall)
Departures: Jordan Davis (Illinois State), Jahcobi Neath (Toronto Metropolitan University)
Overview: Take everything you just read about Illinois and flip it on its head. Where Brad Underwood prefers year-over-year chaos and a patchwork roster that may or may not have a point guard, Greg Gard values stability, familiarity, and conservative growth. In other words, Gard is the Warren Buffett to Underwood’s Cathie Wood, with neither being quite as successful as their investor comparisons here. Wisconsin is doubling down on a roster that struggled mightily to put the ball in the hoop from anywhere and everywhere on the floor, and their typical slog pacing made the Badgers all the more difficult to watch. But for as mediocre as this team was last year – somehow finishing 9-11 in conference play despite not winning back-to-back Big Ten games from January on – I kind of like their makeup. Tyler Wahl should be fully healthy, and while he’s nominally Gard’s best player, the “supporting” cast is the deepest in the conference. Connor Essegian is one of two returning members of the All-Big Ten Freshmen Team and figures to be a major threat from deep, AJ Storr was himself a member of the All-Big East Freshmen Team and should lead the team in scoring a good handful of times, Chucky Hepburn is a steady, solid point guard, and Steven Crowl should anchor a plus-defense while keeping the opposition honest while stepping out from deep. The ceiling may not be the roof, but the floor seems second level at worst.
Prediction: 21-15 (12-8 B1G), 7-seed, NCAA Tournament Second Round
6. Michigan
2022-23 Season End: Second Round NIT loss to Vanderbilt
Returning: Dug McDaniel (So.), Tarris Reed (So.), Terrance Williams II (Sr.), Will Tschetter (So.), Jace Howard (Sr.), Jaelin Llewellyn (5th year), Youssef Khayat (So.)
In-Transfer: Olivier Nkamhoua (Tennessee, 5th year), Nimari Burnett (Alabama/Texas Tech, Jr.), Tray Jackson (Seton Hall/Missouri, 5th year)
Incoming Freshmen: G George Washington III (4-star, #141 overall)
Departures: Hunter Dickinson (Kansas), Kobe Bufkin (NBA Draft, #15 overall), Jett Howard (NBA Draft, #11 overall), Joey Baker
Overview: There are various forms of turnover and roster construction in college basketball these days; categorized, you might go with Tinkering, Rebuilding, and Overhauling. Then there’s Michigan. Few teams had as much talent as the Wolverines last year – in fact, only four others (Alabama, Arkansas, Duke, and Houston) also lost two first round NBA draft picks – and as little success, with Michigan failing to make the NCAA Tournament a season ago. And none of those aforementioned teams also saw a former All-American walk via the transfer portal. But the new-look Maize and Blue return one of the Big Ten’s more exciting freshmen in Dug McDaniel and bring in a trio of interesting veteran transfers, including Finnish-born Olivier Nkamhoua (pronounced “KAHM-wuh"), who was arguably the best player on an offensively challenged Tennessee team that knocked off Duke to reach the Sweet Sixteen. I am generally not a believer in the “addition by subtraction” trope that so many buy into for feel-good reasons, but Michigan already seems to be gelling much better early on this season without having three players looking to tout their individual merits. Juwan Howard will likely be watching this team from afar through the end of the calendar year while continuing to recover from heart surgery, and there will undoubtedly be plenty of storylines to follow.
Prediction: 21-13 (11-9 B1G), 8-seed, NCAA Tournament Second Round
7. Iowa
2022-23 Season End: First Round NCAA Tournament loss to Auburn
Returning: Patrick McCaffery (5th year), Payton Sandfort (Jr.), Tony Perkins (Sr.), Dasonte Bowen (So.), Josh Dix (So.)
In-Transfer: Ben Krikke (Valparaiso, 5th year), Even Brauns (Belmont, Sr.)
Incoming Freshmen: G/F Pryce Sandfort (4-star, #99 overall), G Brock Harding (3-star, #150 overall), F Ladji Dembele (3-star, #186 overall), F Owen Freeman (3-star, #159 overall)
Departures: Kris Murray (NBA Draft, #23 overall), Filip Rebraca, Connor McCaffery, Ahron Ulis (Nebraska), Josh Ogundele (Middle Tennessee)
Overview: By now, we know what to expect from Fran McCaffery in Iowa City: the Hawkeyes are going to score the ball like hell, largely ignore playing defense so as to get back on offense quicker, both win and lose a couple games each in spectacular fashion, and lose in the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament. This roster looks to mimic some of that past excitement. Patrick McCaffery, Fran’s son who is staying in college for a final season following the departure of his brother Connor, will pair up with sharpshooting wing Payton Sandfort in a formidable duo of lanky outside-in scoring threats while Tony Perkins threatens with a bulldog-like drive-to-the-rack game from the point guard spot. Newcomer Ben Krikke should more or less reprise Rebraca’s role as a score-first, defense-optional undersized pirouetting big man and the younger Sandfort will provide some additional scoring punch off the bench unless the 6’0, 162-pound whippersnapper fellow freshman Brock Harding commands the bulk of available minutes.
Prediction: 20-13 (10-10 B1G), 9-seed, NCAA Tournament First Round
8. Indiana
2022-23 Season End: Second Round NCAA Tournament loss to Miami
Returning: Xavier Johnson (6th year), Malik Reneau (So.), Trey Galloway (Sr.), CJ Gunn (So.)
In-Transfer: Kel’el Ware (Oregon, So.), Anthony Walker (Miami (FL), 5th year), Payton Sparks (Ball State, Jr.)
Incoming Freshmen: F Mackenzie Mgbako (5-star, #10 overall), G Gabe Cupps (3-star, #131 overall), G Jakai Newton (3-star, #127 overall)
Departures: Trayce Jackson-Davis (NBA Draft, #57 overall), Jalen Hood-Schifino (NBA Draft, #17 overall), Race Thompson, Miller Kopp, Tamar Bates (Missouri), Jordan Geronimo (Maryland)
Overview: The end of Trayce Jackson-Davis’s college career is the end of an era of transition in Bloomington, with the Hoosiers now firmly in the hands of third-year coach Mike Woodson. After a couple seasons working with the pieces from the existing cupboard, Woodson has largely turned over the entirety of the roster here and will lean heavily on a healthy return of one-time transfer point guard Xavier Johnson, who was playing his normal brand of hot-and-cold, score-first basketball before going down with a season-ending foot injury against Kansas last December. Joining Johnson will be highly-touted freshman Mackenzie Mgbako, a three-level scoring dynamo with outstanding size at 6’8 who should lead this team in scoring so long as the local Taco Bell stays open late, and Kel’el Ware, a 7’0 lengthy center who will be a defensive deterrent and outside scoring threat on occasion. Returning sophomore Malik Reneau also showed flashes of potential as a high-energy four-man in about 15 minutes of action per game last year who will do some dirty work down low. The talent and size are both extant here if Woodson can find the right combination on the court.
Prediction: 18-15 (10-10 B1G), 10-seed, NCAA Tournament First Round
9. Ohio State
2022-23 Season End: No Postseason
Returning: Bruce Thornton (So.), Zed Key (Sr.), Roddy Gayle (So.), Felix Okpara (So.)
In-Transfer: Jamison Battle (Minnesota/George Washington, 5th year), Dale Bonner (Baylor, Jr.), Evan Mahaffey (Penn State, So.)
Incoming Freshmen: W/F Scotty Middleton (4-star, #60 overall), G Taison Chatman (4-star, #33 overall), W/F Devin Royal (4-star, #52 overall), C Austin Parks (3-star, #180 overall)
Departures: Brice Sensabaugh (NBA Draft, #28 overall), Justice Sueing, Sean McNeil, Isaac Likekele, Tanner Holden (Wright State), Eugene Brown (Georgia Southern)
Overview: After starting off the 2022-23 campaign with a couple quality wins in the Maui Invitational followed by a 2-0 get-off in Big Ten play, the Buckeyes’ season spiraled rapidly out of control with 14 losses in 15 conference games. A late burst of life saw Ohio State come up short in the Big Ten Tournament before Chris Holtmann began a full offseason rebuild. Now in his seventh season in Columbus, Holtmann needs to show a return to respectability should he quiet an increasingly frustrated fanbase, and while this team will likely leave something to be desired, there’s enough here to command attention. Scoring combo guard Bruce Thornton was oft-overshadowed by fellow newbie Brice Sensabaugh, but with the latter off to the NBA, it’s Thronton’s time to shine in a lead role. Holtmann should be able to find some production out of a deep and talented freshmen class while leaning on the veteran leadership of Zed Key and newcomer Jamison Battle to stay in the hunt for an NCAA Tournament berth, but ultimately I think the defense – particularly in the post – will keep the Buckeyes just short and questions coming for Holtmann’s stay.
Prediction: 17-15 (9-11 B1G), NIT
10. Northwestern
2022-23 Season End: Second Round NCAA Tournament loss to UCLA
Returning: Boo Buie (5th year), Ty Berry (Sr.), Brooks Barnhizer (Jr.), Matthew Nicholson (Sr.), Nick Martinelli (So.)
In-Transfer: Ryan Langborg (Princeton, Sr.), Blake Preston (Liberty, 5th year), Justin Mullins (Denver, So.)
Incoming Freshmen: G Jordan Clayton (3-star, #218 overall), G Parker Strauss (3-star, #222 overall), F Blake Barkley (3-star, unranked)
Departures: Chase Audige, Robbie Beran (Virginia Tech), Julian Roper (Notre Dame), Tydus Verhoeven
Overview: The stars aligned to give Chris Collins one of those every-six-years type seasons at Northwestern, as the Wildcats made the NCAA Tournament and threatened for a first-ever spot in the Sweet Sixteen for the second time in Collins’s decade as the head man. The good news for Northwestern is that All-Name Team member Boo Buie is back for a swan song after dominating the rock to the tune of nearly 500 field goal attempts and 145 free throws a season ago. The bad news is that Buie’s fellow backcourt mate and far more defensive-minded wing Chase Audige has departed, leaving a massive hole without much talent to fill it. Ty Berry and Brooks Barnhizer will get some of Audige’s past work, but neither is adept from deep (hovering around 30% each from three last year), leaving incoming transfer Ryan Langborg – a bit of a household name after helping lead Princeton to a most remarkable Sweet Sixteen run as a 15-seed – to bear much of the Robin role. This is a veteran squad that won’t find itself embarrassed often, but the talent is simply not there to compete for another top-3 conference finish.
Prediction: 18-15 (9-11 B1G), NIT
11. Rutgers
2022-23 Season End: First Round NIT loss to Hofstra
Returning: Cliff Omoruyi (Sr.), Aundre Hyatt (5th year), Derek Simpson (So.), Mawot Mag (Sr.), Oskar Palmquist (Sr.), Antwone Woolfolk (So.)
In-Transfer: Noah Fernandes (Massachusetts/Wichita State, 5th year), Austin Williams (Hartford/Marist, 5th year), Jeremiah Williams (Iowa State/Temple, Sr.)
Incoming Freshmen: W/G Gavin Griffiths (4-star, #67 overall), G Jamichael Davis (3-star, unranked), C Emmanuel Ogbole (NR)
Departures: Caleb McConnell, Cam Spencer (Connecticut), Paul Mulcahy (Washington), Dean Reiber (Charlotte), Jalen Miller (Oral Roberts)
Overview: It’s never a good sign when an offensively challenged team loses two of its top scoring threats, but that’s the situation Steve Pikiell’s Scarlet Knights find themselves heading into the 2023-24 season. Cliff Omoruyi returns as one of the more athletic and imposing big men in the Big Ten while Gavin Griffiths represents perhaps Pikiell’s best-ever recruit in his eighth season in Piscataway, but all indications would point to another grind-out-of-necessity Rutgers squad. The defense should remain respectable and a healthy return for Mawot Mag (who suffered an ACL tear in February) would go a long way toward giving this team such extra punch on both ends, but I suspect even that won’t be enough to put this team into the top half of the B1G.
Prediction: 15-17 (7-13 B1G)
12. Penn State
2022-23 Season End: Second Round NCAA Tournament loss to Texas
Returning: Kanye Clary (So.), Jameel Brown (So.), Demetrius Lilley (So.)
In-Transfer: Ace Baldwin (VCU, Sr.), Zach Hicks (Temple, Jr.), Qudus Wahab (Georgetown/Maryland/Georgetown, 5th year), Nick Kern (VCU, Jr.), Puff Johnson (North Carolina, Sr.), D’Marco Dunn (North Carolina, Jr.), Leo O’Boyle (Lafayette, 5th year), RayQuawndis Mitchell (Idaho, Illinois-Chicago, UMKC, Sr.), Favour Aire (Miami, So.)
Incoming Freshmen: G Bragi Gudmundsson (NR)
Departures: Jalen Pickett (NBA Draft, #32 overall), Seth Lundy (NBA Draft, #46 overall), Andrew Funk, Camren Wynter, Myles Dread, Kebba Njie (Notre Dame), Evan Mahaffey (Ohio State), Michael Henn, Dallion Johnson (FGCU), Caleb Dorsey (William & Mary)
Overview: New coach, new team. I should have put a qualifier on Michigan’s intense roster overhaul earlier, as Penn State’s squad this season makes the Wolverines (and the rest of their conference foes, for that matter) look like conference long-stays to the Nittany Lions’ 2-hour motels. Only three bit contributors return to Happy Valley as the Mike Rhoades era is ushered in following the conference’s only coaching departure that saw Micah Shrewsberry head to Notre Dame. Rhoades, who made the NCAA Tournament in half of his six seasons at VCU, will do his best to follow more in the steps of Shaka Smart and Anthony Grant than Will Wade and Jeff Capel when it comes to former Rams’ coaches, and bringing star point guard Ace Baldwin along with him to Penn State should help matters immensely. Surrounding Baldwin is a patchwork roster of transfers who have played in just about every league and corner of the country (and sometimes twice over, as in the case of Wahab), which should at least make things interesting. I believe in Rhoades’s long-term upside as a Big Ten coach, but I think there will be far too many growing pains to expect much of anything this year.
Prediction: 14-17 (6-14 B1G)
13. Nebraska
2022-23 Season End: No Postseason
Returning: Keisei Tominaga (Jr.), CJ Wilcher (Jr.), Jamarques Lawrence (So.), Sam Hoiberg (So.), Juwan Gary (Sr.), Blaise Keita (So.)
In-Transfer: Brice Williams (Charlotte, Sr.), Rienk Mast (Bradley, Sr.), Josiah Allick (New Mexico/UMKC, 5th year), Jarron Coleman (Ball State/Missouri/Ball State, 5th year), Ahron Ulis (Iowa, Sr.)
Incoming Freshmen: W/F Eli Rice (3-star, #184 overall), F Matar Diop (NR)
Departures: Derrick Walker, Sam Griesel, Emmanuel Bandoumel, Wilhelm Breidenbach (Washington), Denim Dawson (Tennessee State)
Overview: Fred Hoiberg’s tenure in Lincoln has certainly not gone according to plan, though his Huskers did start to make some defensive strides a season ago while clawing out nine conference wins and a .500 record overall. Shoot-from-anywhere junior Keisei Tominaga hopes to get back on the floor soon for Nebraska in what would be a scoring boon, but until then, Hoiberg will largely be leaning on three up-transfers in Brice Williams, Rienk Mast, and Josiah Allick to compete. Williams and Mast have some shooting ability and are certainly comfortable with high-usage, but expecting former low- and mid-major players to go toe-to-toe with the big boys of the Big Ten is rarely a recipe for success.
Prediction: 14-18 (6-14 B1G)
14. Minnesota
2022-23 Season End: No Postseason
Returning: Dawson Garcia (Sr.), Joshua Ola-Joseph (So.), Pharrel Payne (So.), Braeden Carrington (So.), Isaiah Ihnen (Jr.)
In-Transfer: Elijah Hawkins (Howard, Jr.), Mike Mitchell, Jr. (Pepperdine, Jr.), Jack Wilson (Washington State/Idaho/Oregon State, 5th year)
Incoming Freshmen: G Cam Christie (4-star, #84 overall), W/F Kristupas Keinys (NR)
Departures: Jamison Battle (Ohio State), Ta’Lon Cooper (South Carolina), Jaden Henley (DePaul), Taurus Samuels, Treyton Thompson (Stetson)
Overview: Now entering his third season as head coach, Ben Johnson is still figuring out how tough it is to win in the Big Ten. The Golden Gophers have just six conference victories to their name over the last couple years, and though Cam Christie (brother of former MSU wing Max) is drawing some hype as Johnson’s best recruit yet, the roster is largely devoid of high-major caliber players. Former Marquette and North Carolina big Dawson Garcia will be the unquestioned focal point of an offense that ranked a putrid 235th in efficiency last season according to KenPom, and a couple of the transfers will have to punch well ahead of their weight classes should Minnesota scrap its way out of the conference cellar.
Prediction: 12-19 (5-15 B1G)
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