Prognosticating Potential: 2023 Big Ten Basketball Postseason Edition

The Hangover, of course

With the Super Bowl in the rear-view mirror and March so near we can all feel the madness coming on, it’s high time for college basketball in the spotlight. For those of you not incurably addicted to this sport, welcome to the show. The 2022-23 season has been a hell of a ride already, and parity remains as strong as ever across the board. Low-major conference tournaments are underway, and this year’s NCAA Tournament bracket will be unveiled two Sundays from today, so if you aren’t yet staying up late into the night, immersing yourself in the annals of KenPom, and sweating your team’s fate…well, you probably don’t have a team in that case.

The Big Ten, this blog’s primary (but perhaps not sole in the days ahead) focus, will kick off its own postseason conference tournament on March 8th in Chicago, and, despite being scarcely represented among the ranks of the nation’s elite teams this year, the conference remains quite strong overall, sporting a middle tier packed like sardines, a truly deep roster of competitive squads, and an off-chance to see as many as 11 teams dancing next month. As for my pinned tweet prediction from mid-December that two Big Ten teams will make the Final Four and at least four will make the Sweet Sixteen…let’s just say I’m a bit less confident now, but still see that possibility if I squint hard enough.

Me looking at my ill-advised hot takes in the middle of winter

Today, we’ll dive into all 14 Big Ten programs’ March prospects, taking into account a number of “Postseason Metrics at a Glance” that form the base criteria for the NCAA’s Selection Committee in building the bracket out. For those interested in learning more about this process, the NCAA has plenty of further reading at ncaa.org, including a “How the field of 68 DI men’s teams is picked for March Madness” article that provides a comprehensive view.

For our purposes, the following metrics will suffice for informed – and sometimes moderately spicy – takes on each team:

Postseason Metrics at a Glance

Bracket Matrix Projected Seed: The Bracket Matrix is an aggregate look at 97 different bracketologists’ seed predictions. If you are only paying attention to the Joe Lunardis and Jerry Palms of the world, you’re missing out on some of the brightest minds in bracketology who also consistently have more accurate bracket projections, including my good friend Joe Cook-Shugart at 1-3-1 Sports. The Bracket Matrix Projected Seed will simply show the current seed line each team is projected at in the Matrix.

Bracket Matrix Average Seed: The average seed of each Bracket Matrix bracket that projects the team into the field. For example, all 97 bracketologists in the Matrix currently have Houston receiving a 1-seed, giving the Cougars an average seed of 1.00. Kentucky, which is also projected to make the field in the eyes of all 97, is currently viewed as a 7-seed with an average seed of 6.8, meaning they are closer to moving up a seed line than down.

Bracket Matrix # of Brackets: The number of brackets in the Matrix (out of 97 total) that currently have the team in the field of 68.

NET Ranking: In 2018, the NCAA revised the Selection Committee’s methods of making the bracket, switching from a focus on RPI to a new NET ranking. The NET ranking essentially rewards teams for beating good teams and punishes teams for losing to bad teams (fancy that logic!), with more positive emphasis on road and neutral-court wins against top-tier opponents and more negative emphasis on home losses against middle- and bottom-tier opponents. Here is the unscientific formula:

Quadrant 1: Home 1-30; Neutral 1-50; Away 1-75

Quadrant 2: Home 31-75; Neutral 51-100; Away 76-135

Quadrant 3: Home 76-160; Neutral 101-200; Away 136-240

Quadrant 4: Home 161-plus; Neutral 201-plus; Away 241-plus.

For more reading, gateway yourself to becoming a Tourney junky by reading this NCAA article.

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Quad 1 Record: As determined by the NET. By March 12, you’ll want to throw your remote at the TV every time you hear a talking head mention Quad records, but important they are to understand, my friends.

Quad 2 Record: See above.

Quad 3/4 Record: See above (and above again).

NET Strength of Schedule: Just as it sounds, this is the measure of how difficult a schedule a team has played relative to NET rankings, with a smaller number indicating a more difficult strength of schedule, which is more desirable in the eyes of the Committee.

Advanced Metrics Average Ranking: With the NCAA’s revision toward the NET ranking system, the organization also took a step into modern times by taking into account team efficiency metrics as calculated by numerous indices and online whizbangs. As best I can tell, the NCAA’s Selection Committee officially uses KenPom, KPI Sports, ESPN’s BPI, and Sagarin in making the bracket, but I will use the average rankings of KenPom, EvanMiya, and Bart Torvik for this metric, as I view these three sites as especially cutting edge.

Ceiling: Within relative reason and using the aforementioned metrics, this is the highest I can envision a team being seeded – each team’s dream scenario, generally. Please note that “within relative reason” means I will not consider the possibility of Minnesota winning the B1G Tournament and thus punching a ticket to the Tournament, though Golden Gopher fans are more than welcome to transport their minds to an alternate universe in which such a dream could be realized.

Floor: The flip of the ceiling (or roof, if your name is Michael Jordan), this is the worst outcome I can envision for each team’s Tournament prospects. And no, we will not speculate on potential NIT seed lines for my own sanity's sake. Selection Sunday Prediction: Taking into account all the above, this is my wholly unqualified, completely unhinged prediction of what each Big Ten team’s reality will be on Selection Sunday.

Drumroll please…

Purdue

Which Painter will we see come Selection Sunday? (Courtesy: The Athletic)

Bracket Matrix Projected Seed: 1

Bracket Matrix Average Seed: 1.23

Bracket Matrix # of Brackets: 97 (100%)

NET Ranking: 5

Quad 1 Record: 9-4

Quad 2 Record: 5-1

Quad 3/4 Record: 10-0

NET Strength of Schedule: 25

Advanced Metrics Average Ranking: 5.7

Ceiling: 1-seed

Floor: 3-seed Selection Sunday Prediction: Still the only truly elite Big Ten team this year, Purdue has stumbled through a rough February that has seen the Boilermakers drop four of seven games, including three of their last four and both contests against arch-rival Indiana. I remain steadfast in my belief that Zach Edey is the best college player in the country and anticipate that he’ll be a nightmare once outside the confines of conference scouting again. Purdue will travel to Wisconsin before hosting Illinois this weekend to close out their regular season; I count two wins there and think Purdue will at least play on Selection Sunday before carving out a 1-seed.

Indiana

The Hoosiers are now a two-man show thanks to JHS (Courtesy: USA Today)

Bracket Matrix Projected Seed: 4

Bracket Matrix Average Seed: 3.76

Bracket Matrix # of Brackets: 97 (100%)

NET Ranking: 18

Quad 1 Record: 5-8

Quad 2 Record: 6-1

Quad 3/4 Record: 9-0

NET Strength of Schedule: 9

Advanced Metrics Average Ranking: 20.3

Ceiling: 2-seed

Floor: 6-seed Selection Sunday Prediction: Indiana has been the hottest team in the conference and one of the hottest teams in the country after having completed a season sweep of Purdue and going 10-3 since mid-January. It wasn’t long ago that Indiana was sitting at 1-4 in the Big Ten and being projected squarely on the bubble, but Trayce Jackson-Davis has reached a new stratosphere of play while Jalen Hood-Schifino – the Robin to TJD’s Batman – has cemented himself as the conference’s Freshman of the Year. I like Indiana to beat both Iowa and Michigan at home to end the regular season and put a 2-seed in play but ultimately think the Hoosiers fail to reach the Big Ten Tourney finals and stay put as a 4-seed given their NET ranking.

Northwestern

Bracket Matrix Projected Seed: 6

Bracket Matrix Average Seed: 6.37

Bracket Matrix # of Brackets: 97 (100%)

NET Ranking: 41

Quad 1 Record: 7-5

Quad 2 Record: 4-4

Quad 3/4 Record: 9-0

NET Strength of Schedule: 32

Advanced Metrics Average Ranking: 47.3

Ceiling: 5-seed

Floor: 8-seed Selection Sunday Prediction: Chris Collins deserves Big Ten Coach of the Year honors in my book for what he’s gotten out of an experienced yet unproven group that was widely expected to fall far short of the NCAA Tournament for a sixth straight season. The Cats will safely be dancing largely on the backs of their impressive slate of seven Quad 1 wins, but the advanced metrics will put a fairly hard cap on seeding upside, and I am still struggling to trust Northwestern’s quality despite some outstanding results. Give me Northwestern splitting their final two conference games (vs. Penn State and @ Rutgers) and a 1-1 split in the Big Ten Tournament to see Chicago's Big Ten Team fall slightly to the 7-seed line.

Maryland

Jahmir Young has been one of the best surprises for one of the most surprising teams in the B1G (Courtesy: 247 Sports)

Bracket Matrix Projected Seed: 6

Bracket Matrix Average Seed: 6.71

Bracket Matrix # of Brackets: 97 (100%)

NET Ranking: 21

Quad 1 Record: 3-8

Quad 2 Record: 7-1

Quad 3/4 Record: 10-0

NET Strength of Schedule: 35

Advanced Metrics Average Ranking: 23.3

Ceiling: 4-seed

Floor: 8-seed Selection Sunday Prediction: Like Northwestern, Maryland has unexpectedly amassed a resume that sees them comfortably in the Tournament field as we flip the calendars to March. Like Northwestern (and no other B1G team), Maryland has knocked off both Purdue and Indiana. Unlike Northwestern, Maryland has the advanced metrics to provide some seeding upside, and with winnable games at Ohio State and Penn State remaining on the schedule, I can internally iterate a path to a protected seed in a remarkable first season at the helm for Kevin Willard. Ultimately, I think the Terps fall short of that dream scenario but keep their winning ways going and lock in a 5-seed.

Illinois

Bracket Matrix Projected Seed: 7

Bracket Matrix Average Seed: 7.31

Bracket Matrix # of Brackets: 97 (100%)

NET Ranking: 33

Quad 1 Record: 3-9

Quad 2 Record: 6-1

Quad 3/4 Record: 10-0

NET Strength of Schedule: 34

Advanced Metrics Average Ranking: 35.0

Ceiling: 5-seed

Floor: 10-seed Selection Sunday Prediction: At their best, the Fighting Illini have the talent and the coaching to compete with anyone in the country, but they’ve never quite put all the pieces together this season. This past weekend’s loss at a reeling Ohio State is the opposite of what any fan base hopes for approaching postseason play, and looming battles against an upstart Michigan team and at an assuredly angry Purdue will have a great bearing on Illinois’s seeding. They will unquestionably make the field, but I don’t like the direction things have gone and forecast a 9-seed come March 12th.

Michigan State

It's been an exceptionally emotional time in East Lansing (Courtesy: Indy Star)

Bracket Matrix Projected Seed: 7

Bracket Matrix Average Seed: 7.34

Bracket Matrix # of Brackets: 97 (100%)

NET Ranking: 32

Quad 1 Record: 6-9

Quad 2 Record: 4-1

Quad 3/4 Record: 7-1

NET Strength of Schedule: 5

Advanced Metrics Average Ranking: 27.7

Ceiling: 6-seed

Floor: 9-seed Selection Sunday Prediction: The Spartan faithful, still mourning the horrific recent on-campus tragedy, hope Tom Izzo’s program does what it has so many times before in bringing some much-needed joy to the community. Certainly this team will be playing with all the passion we’ve come to expect from Michigan State and then some, and they’ll have yet another chance to make noise in March as Izzo punches his ticket to a 25th straight NCAA Tournament, second only to defending National Champion Kansas. With non-Quad 1 regular season tilts at Nebraska and versus Ohio State the only remaining before postseason play begins, it’s hard to see a big seed-line jump up, and ultimately I think Michigan State ends up on the 8-seed line.

Iowa

Can the Hawkeyes capitalize on their recent magic? (Courtesy: HawkCentral)

Bracket Matrix Projected Seed: 8

Bracket Matrix Average Seed: 8.27

Bracket Matrix # of Brackets: 97 (100%)

NET Ranking: 43

Quad 1 Record: 4-8

Quad 2 Record: 8-2

Quad 3/4 Record: 6-1

NET Strength of Schedule: 22

Advanced Metrics Average Ranking: 42.7

Ceiling: 6-seed

Floor: 10-seed Selection Sunday Prediction: Iowa has a massive opportunity to build on a wild overtime victory against Michigan State last weekend in which the Hawkeyes made five three-pointers in the last 40 seconds of regulation when they travel to Bloomington in tonight’s romp at Indiana. Regardless of outcome, the Hawkeyes should be comfortably in the Tournament field again, though last year’s first-round loss to 13-seed Richmond after a miraculous run to win the Big Ten Tournament championship remains front of mind. The offense is once again the strong suit of the squad hailing from Iowa City, and I think it will be just good enough for Iowa to hold tight onto the 8-seed its currently projected to achieve.

Rutgers

Bracket Matrix Projected Seed: 9

Bracket Matrix Average Seed: 9.12

Bracket Matrix # of Brackets: 97 (100%)

NET Ranking: 31

Quad 1 Record: 6-6

Quad 2 Record: 3-2

Quad 3/4 Record: 9-3

NET Strength of Schedule: 38

Advanced Metrics Average Ranking: 35.0

Ceiling: 7-seed

Floor: First Four Out Selection Sunday Prediction: Rutgers has fallen rapidly down the charts since losing uber-versatile junior Mawot Mag in early February, losing four of their six games since. The Scarlet Knights’ recent comeback win at Penn State following a 19-point second half deficit was certainly a massive sigh of relief felt throughout Piscataway, but remaining games at Minnesota and versus Northwestern don’t provide a ton of opportunity to build a buffer against a journey in the dreaded bubble. The metrics across the board suggest it would still take a collapse of epic proportions to see Rutgers on the outside looking in, and I do believe they’ll get just enough done to squeak in as a 10-seed.

Wisconsin

Will Mr. Gumbel shatter Badger hearts? (Courtesy: Chicago Sun-Times)

Bracket Matrix Projected Seed: 11

Bracket Matrix Average Seed: 11.03

Bracket Matrix # of Brackets: 64 (66%)

NET Ranking: 72

Quad 1 Record: 6-6

Quad 2 Record: 4-5

Quad 3/4 Record: 6-1

NET Strength of Schedule: 11

Advanced Metrics Average Ranking: 69.0

Ceiling: 9-seed

Floor: Out Selection Sunday Prediction: It’s hard to see a path to Selection Sunday in which the Badgers aren’t sweating Sean Miller-style as Greg Gumbel greets us and CBS’s gorgeous college basketball anthem welcomes us to the greatest three weeks of the year. Wisconsin has built a resume on the backs of an OT squeaker of a win at Marquette in early December and a spattering of mostly close wins against the middle of the pack in the Big Ten. With games remaining versus Purdue on Thursday and at Minnesota prior to the Big Ten Tournament, Wisconsin’s road to a comfortable Selection Show watch party must include a win over the Boilermakers or a Sunday finals appearance in the BTT in Chicago. I don’t think either comes to fruition, leaving Wisconsin out of the Tournament field for the first time since 2018.

Michigan

Kobe Bufkin will attempt to drive his Wolverines into the Dance (Courtesy: FanSided)

Bracket Matrix Projected Seed: N/A, fourth team out

Bracket Matrix Average Seed: 11.00

Bracket Matrix # of Brackets: 6 (6.2%)

NET Ranking: 54

Quad 1 Record: 3-10

Quad 2 Record: 6-1

Quad 3/4 Record: 8-1

NET Strength of Schedule: 26

Advanced Metrics Average Ranking: 45.0

Ceiling: 10-seed

Floor: Out Selection Sunday Prediction: After Indiana, Michigan has been playing the most impressive ball of late in the Big Ten, having won its last three – including an OT thriller over Wisconsin following a wild Hunter Dickinson 3-pointer at the regulation buzzer. Unfortunately for Juwan Howard’s squad, a brutal Quad-4 loss to Central Michigan on December 29 leaves an ugly mark on the Wolverines’ team sheet, but two Quad-1 opportunities at Illinois and Indiana this week leave the door open for another appearance in the Big Dance. According to Joe Cook-Shugart of 1-3-1 Sports – one of the most accurate bracketology websites around – Michigan needs two more wins to be in the conversation, and while I’ve chastised my friend for such a lukewarm take, he knows what he’s talking about. I think Michigan does just enough to squeak in on the shoulders of some outstanding guard play from Kobe Bufkin and Dug McDaniel, splitting the final two of the regular season and winning twice next week to earn an 11-seed.

Penn State

Pickett's heroics unfortunately won't be enough for Penn State (Courtesy: Ben Stevens)

Bracket Matrix Projected Seed: N/A, sixth team out

Bracket Matrix Average Seed: 11.00

Bracket Matrix # of Brackets: 1 (1.0%)

NET Ranking: 59

Quad 1 Record: 3-7

Quad 2 Record: 4-5

Quad 3/4 Record: 10-0

NET Strength of Schedule: 33

Advanced Metrics Average Ranking: 50.0

Ceiling: 11-seed

Floor: Out Selection Sunday Prediction: If Penn State can recover from a devastating blown game against Rutgers this past weekend and find a way to get past Northwestern in Evanston and Maryland in Happy Valley before the Big Ten Tournament commences, their Tourney prayers could be answered with the help of some popping bubbles and would-be bid stealers being sent packing during conference tournament season. Alas, that is a lot of help required and much to ask of Jalen Pickett, a surefire 1st Team All-Big Ten player who has simply not found enough defensive help from his teammates to match the offensive prowess he’s displayed en route to being a top-10 KenPom Player of the Year (currently sitting at #8). I think Penn State is looking at a 1-1 regular season finish at best and comes up short next week on their way to being left out of the NCAA Tournament.

Nebraska

Bracket Matrix Projected Seed: N/A

Bracket Matrix Average Seed: N/A

Bracket Matrix # of Brackets: N/A

NET Ranking: 92

Quad 1 Record: 3-10

Quad 2 Record: 4-4

Quad 3/4 Record: 8-0

NET Strength of Schedule: 12

Advanced Metrics Average Ranking: 110.7

Ceiling: Out

Floor: Out Selection Sunday Prediction: Nebraska has shown some impressive resolve and fight after starting off conference play with a 3-9 record through January, having won four in a row and five of six in February with wins over Maryland, Wisconsin, and Penn State at home and a won victory at Rutgers that should give Fred Hoiberg’s program some confidence moving into the offseason. The Cornhuskers have a chance to make the NIT, which would be a great opportunity to build on the recent success despite too many losses overall to sniff the NCAA Tournament field.

Ohio State

"Please ref...I'm coaching for my job." (Courtesy: FanSided)

Bracket Matrix Projected Seed: N/A

Bracket Matrix Average Seed: N/A

Bracket Matrix # of Brackets: N/A

NET Ranking: 63

Quad 1 Record: 1-11

Quad 2 Record: 5-5

Quad 3/4 Record: 6-1

NET Strength of Schedule: 10

Advanced Metrics Average Ranking: 69.7

Ceiling: Out

Floor: Out Selection Sunday Prediction: The Buckeyes appeared to be in contention for a protected seed on New Year’s Day following a win at Northwestern that brought Ohio State to 10-3 overall and 2-0 in conference play. Since then, it’s been a disaster of unfathomable proportions for Chris Holtmann’s team, with 14 losses in 16 games, including nine straight over the course of four weeks from late January to late February. While Holtmann’s seat could get uncomfortably warm next month, I think he keeps his job if he wants it, but Ohio State has no postseason prospects.

Minnesota

Bracket Matrix Projected Seed: N/A

Bracket Matrix Average Seed: N/A

Bracket Matrix # of Brackets: N/A

NET Ranking: 237

Quad 1 Record: 1-11

Quad 2 Record: 0-7

Quad 3/4 Record: 6-2

NET Strength of Schedule: 20

Advanced Metrics Average Ranking: 234.0

Ceiling: Out

Floor: 404: Not Found Selection Sunday Prediction: We can make this as painless as possible – it’s been a rough go for the Golden Gophers this season, and the program will be looking to reset this offseason. Their season will be over following the Big Ten Tournament.